The Drudge Report is reporting results of some leaked exit polls. Don’t know how much credence I’d put into that but if the numbers are accurate it looks like President Bush better start packing up the China. (I suggest bubble wrap, sure it costs more than newspaper but it offers much better protoection).
Zogby is also updating slowly throught the day. Currently the poll is at 252 electors each (270 needed to win). But Zogby is also telling readers to watch for surprises in Colorado, Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania. That’s all good for Kerry (Zogby had picked Fl, Va, Co for Bush). But it would be very bad if Kerry lost Pennsylvania.
Current Electoral Vote Predictor has Kerry leading 262 to 261 but has New Jersey as a tossup. I’m skeptical, I say New Jersey is solid Kerry country.
Voter turnout is said to be huge, and high voter turnout favors Kerry. So there is every chance my prediction of a Bush win was wrong. Not surprising because A) I’m as dumb as a sack of hammers and B) I was going by the polls. And I think the polls may have under representing Kerry. No one polls the folks who only use a cell phone and they discount first time voters (’cause as James Carville said: “What do you call a candidate who counts on first time voters? A loser.”) Of course if these people actually vote they can really push the vote right into Kerry’s lap.
Update the 1: Rush limbaugh is reporting (and there’s a phrase you’re not likely to ever read again) that all the legit news places (and fox) will be relying on the AP for their exit polls. Which means that all the talking heads will be chattering on using exactly yhe same info. At this time I proudly announce that I endorse comdy central for election coverage.
Update the 2: Florida football sucks. Not really election related just a cogent observation. Evidence: Miami loses, UCF is the worst team in America, FSU loses, Florida Loses, and the Dolphins are positively humiliated.
Update the 3: Guy Serle is from Florida
Update the 4:Zogby has called the election for Kerry 311 to 213
Update the 5: dailykos is reporting new exit polls that show Kerry winning in both Ohio and Florida. I wouldn’t use this info for any meaningful decisions. Actually I wouldn’t use this info for anything other than entertainment value.
Update the 6: CNN is still listing Ohio, Florida and , surprisingly, Virginia as too close to call. Kerry is projected to win in New Jersey so if you’re a follower of the Current Electoral Vote Predictor you can lock it up for Kerry. I wouldn’t recommend it though.
Update the 7: Virginia has just been called for Bush by NBC. Not a backbreaker for Kerry but if Kerry had won the state (note how I avoid saying Kerry carried, sounds awful) It would’ve have put a major dent in GWB’s chances. All eyes are on Ohio. Or as we call in Tennessee O.H. 10 (that’s o-aitch-ten)
Update the 8: Yahoo is listing both Ohio and Florida as leaning towards Bush. For a Kerry win he must win in at least one state. The White House is saying that they are outperforming their 2000 (oh wow) numbers in Ohio (which Bush carried in 2000). At this moment things are looking a bit bleak for the Kerry Edwards ticket. If Ohio and Florida both go to Bush then it’s four more years of GWB. So far Zogby hasn’t missed a pick yet but we’ll see if it holds up.
Update the last: Bush Wins the world still appears (to the costernation of many) to be spiining and, at least in TN the sun rose. For you teeth gnashers out there remember what Guy Serle said: no matter who wins its not the end of the world. For you Guy Serle’s out there: I realize that technically Florida has football teams but the question remains: Can florida actually play football.
I am thankful that there appears to be a fairly clear winner in both the popular and electoral vote.
Updated as I get more info if there is any interest…. Well I’ll update anyway. Look at the sub title for a time stamp. test edit2
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