Some time back Bill Gates made a statement that in the future hardware would essentially be free. I’m down with that. I remember a few years ago when the world went internet crazy you could get a $400 dollar rebate from Best Buy or CompUSA if you agreed to a two year hitch with MSN. In the least surprising marketing move of all time the aforementioned stores would sell you a computer for the amount of the rebate. Recently Sir Bill’s predictions were echoed by Sun. It might behoove folks to remember that Sun has been championing distributed computing and software rentals since at least 1998. So maybe it’s wishful thinking or maybe the future will have essentially free hardware. Wouldn’t free hardware be great? And what would this mean for Macs?
Perhaps surprisingly this idea scares a lot of folks. So they argue vociferously against the notion. The first argument usually is that computers are expensive to produce. So are ball bearings. Think of the expense to make one ball bearing. First you have to mine the ore. Then smelt it into ingots. Then build a factory to make the ball bearing, etc. The point being that while making the first ball bearing is very pricey making the second one is next to free. Economists have a term for this, it’s called: Hey moron! We were planning on making more than one. Or, alternatively: economies of scale. It’s an easy concept to demonstrate: In 1990 a Mac IIfx ran $9,900, today a top-o-the line G5 will set you back $2999. So yeah computers are getting cheaper. Does the curve asymptotically near zero? Screw you math major, I don’t have time for that kind of discourse. Read this.
Of course the real reason that it scares people is not because computers cost money it’s because they know, from years of getting corporate screwjobs, that they’re gonna end up paying one way or another. See It turns out businesses aren’t in business to make computers, oven handles or snowglobes. Nope businesses are in business for one reason: to make dough and lots of it. The one exception is, of course, Matsumura Fishworks and Tamaribuchi Heavy Manufacturing Concern. The concern is two fold: If I’m getting the hardware for free, how are they going to stick it to me? And Are they gonna stick it to me worse than before? Answer: Subscriptions and yes. Hey it’s not that they’re bad folks, separating you from your money is what makes business business.
I share the concern. I don’t want to pay every month for something I don’t need. When I signed up for my last cell phone plan a free phone was included. I already had a phone I liked but since they weren’t going to give me a discount for continuing to use it I took the free one. Heck I was going to end up paying for it every month anyway, why not take the crappy phone? So will I be getting a free computer every few years that I don’t want or need if the prognostications are true? I hope not.
If this comes to pass the real question is how will this effect Apple? Actually that doesn’t matter. The real question is how will this effect Chris Seibold Macintosh user? Hopefully not much, like a lot of people I’m reasonably happy with my computing experience. Such a scenario could give Apple a nice way to build market share (not a big concern of mine, as long as they make Macs I’m happy). The free hardware thing removes one of the biggest objections to Apple’s products, namely that Macs are way too expensive. So people could get over that barrier. Since software is presumably included with the monthly subscription your old software is pretty useless, why not come over to the light side? If people know they aren’t ‘stuck’ with a Mac for more than 2 years isn’t that a little less FUD concerning the switch?
There are other reasons why it might be good for Apple: The subscription model means fractionalization in the PC market. Suddenly there’s a real, tangible difference between Sony, Compackard and Dell. Sony going to want you in on their music plan, Dell is going to want you signed up for printer cartridges and Hewlett Packard is going to insist that their computers don’t suck. Point being that there is going to be some serious add on stuff, stuff that makes Windows look worse than it is (hey, I like Windows). Frustrating things. Things that make Macs, with the carefully controlled user experience, seem like a computing nirvana.
Well that’s all I’ve got to say about that. Is it just me or does WMV suck way more than quicktime? I’ve seen this video both in WMV and MOV and, it may just be me or my setup, but that clip mirrors from my general experience. And in my experience WMV files bite.
Wow, look at all that mindless writing. What was I thinking? Time for some links:
Never considered going to grad school until I saw this: EVIL SCIENCE
Devils Tramping Ground is excellent.
Monty Pythons The Holy Grail entire script online? Yep
Excellent switcher article: Apple, on the other hand, has built a friendly and reliable operating system
Excellent ebay auction:Selling sons Playstation 2 for punishment 13 year old gets into beer, champange, busts bugle. Loses Playstation
Excellent tip for iPod users: Bring your iPod to life by killing auto-sync
All that’s left is the CKS/BL tridiot rating: Thanks to an ancient abacus I unearthed in my backyard I can report with confidence today’s rating of 104.256%
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