Eating crow is good for you

Right. OK now is the time when I must confess that I thought this was a mistake. I wrote several blogs about why I thought it would never happen and how smug I was in my assumptions. Hindsight being what it is, now I’ll go over the few past blogs and eat some humble pie. While I still think this is the biggest blunder since not licensing the Mac OS in the 80s, it’s time to move on and start talking about the future. First though I must learn from the past.

First, I talked about the rumor itself. Good thing I didn’t make any wagers.

Apparently the latest rumors making the rounds reguarding Apple is that they are in secret (SHHH! Don’t tell anyone) talks with Intel, the King of the X86 world, to possibly switch the Mac line over to their Pentium chip. While this is the stuff that makes Fanboys faint, don’t bet the farm on it. The only way Apple would make a switch like this is if they were planning on giving up making computers.

Oh how conceited I was here. It’s painful for me to even read it again. While the roadmap for Apple to Intel is about as clear as driving through a hurricane, I doubt in the short run Apple will stop making computers that exclusively run the Mac OS.

The is no way that Apple could compete with Dell/HP/Gateway/Bob’s computers and snackbar (NOW with GYROS!) and still have the profit margin they currently enjoy using IBM’s 970 line. Yes, IBM hasn’t been cranking out faster chips as quickly as Steve Jobs might like (or predicted), yes, MHz for MHz, the Intel side is a little faster, and yes, Apple could possible give Microsoft a run for their money by making their OS compatible with the 95 percent or so of the other computers out there, but it would also most likely doom the company.

Could I be any more flippant? Apparently without some hack of whatever Apple will include to prevent OS X from running on any garden variety PC (and the hacks will come), you’ll still only be able to run OS X on an Apple branded machine.

Think about it. We are in year 5 of the great switchover from the classic Mac OS (OS 9 and below) and OS X (10.0 and above). Much of the software that was available for the classic OS never made the leap to OS X and replacements for many of those titles are now just beginning to trickle in. Apple has shown remarkable patience during the great migration and the companies that supported OS X in the beginning are now seeing some of the fruit of their labors. How many of those same companies do you think are interested in making yet another switch to X86 hardware? If they have their feet in both the Mac and Windows camps, they already have at least two very different customers to satisfy (Three or possibly four is they support the Classic Mac OS and Linux as well). Now just as there could be light at the end of the tunnel, you’re going to pull the rug out again?

I still stand by most of this. No matter how much Steve Jobs sugarcoats it, there will be many applications that won’t make the switch. Will other developers step in? Time will tell.

While the X86 hardware is certainly speedy-quick, Apple would have to be even more insane than I think they are by making a move like this. How many additional drivers alone would have to be created to support this? While the thought of having all the hardware currently available for Intel-based computers might make you drool, just making it available for X86 based computers doesn’t mean you could go out and buy that 512 Mb video card and stuff it into an xMac. Just ask the Linux folks out there (Been using X86 for years) how much of that gear works for them without special drivers being created.

Hyperbole on my part. If Apple ends up being the exclusive maker of Intel based Macs, they will have working drivers for anything they put in them. Hopefully many of the exclusive to PC makers of third party hardware will make drivers to support Apple, but there really is no way to tell at this point.

Also think about this. How long do you suppose that Microsoft would continue making Office for the Mac if Apple starting competing with them on the same hardware? Unless Apple has a compatible Office Suite ready to go (iWork is hardly a replacement in its current state), this would be a serious blow to the world of Mac.

Since the Mac Business Unit from MS was on the stage with Steve during the keynote, this was about as wrong as David Hasselhof playing Macbeth.

Most likely this could lead to other consumer devices with the Apple brand. Perhaps an Apple media center or some other set top device maybe, but not the Macintosh. Of course I have been wrong before and unlike many I would never say never. I feel however it would be a mistake. Lets just wait a bit and see what Apple can do with say the IBM Cell multi-processor or even some of the other 97x chips that they have up their sleeves before jumping into another camp as of yet.

Someone please slap me before I make predictions about Apple again. I can’t make predictions about what I had for breakfast today, much less anything about billion dollar computer companies. Oddly enough, I’ve already made some predictions here so this tells you much about my resilience. Maybe I just like being slapped.

It seems this argument goes around every couple of years. HEY! Why doesn’t Apple make OS 7-8-9-X available for Intel based PCs? Let someone else take the hit for making the hardware and Apple just collects for licenses like Microsoft does.

Whine, whine, whine. Would I like some cheesefries with that?

The problem with this thinking is that it doesn’t take into account the kind of company that Apple is. Apple makes great hardware and software. However, with the exception of QuickTime and iTunes (There are other examples as well, but these are the big two), every piece of software created is to further the capabilities of the Mac platform. Apple isn’t a software company that just happens to make great computers, they are a hardware company that happens to make great software. Also, most (not all) of the software they have created was to fill gaps left by Windows-blinded software companies. Yes, they have also stepped on the toes of a few as well, but we have all gained by best of class (on any platform) stuff like iLife. Also remember this; THE OS WARS ARE OVER! APPLE LOST A LONG TIME AGO! It’s time to get over it and move on. It would take an act of God Himself coming down from the heavens and smiting every PC out there with Windows before Apple would have a serious chance to gain significant marketshare.

This is mostly true, so I don’t feel as bad saying that.

Moving OS X to Intel is essentially a death sentence for the Mac and probably Apple.

More whine, less thinking on my part. Apple will be around in some form no matter what for a long time.

Alright, this might seem like a repeat of what I said yesterday, but I’m going somewhere with this. One other possibility I haven’t seen floated out there yet is another OS all together. Apple has the capability to put out an X86 based operating system with Unix at its core that isn’t the Macintosh OS.

Linux has made great strides in usability for its customers, but there are still too many hoops for the average (IE Ma and Pa Kettle running some virus/malware infected Windows box) user to make a switch. Apple has proven that with drive, marketability, and ease of use, they could make a sucessful Unix based OS that anyone can use based on PPC processors. Why not do the same with X86? Don’t make it a OS X clone, make it look different. The Mac line on OS X is strong enough to stand on its own and Apple’s profit margin is too high for them to abandon it completely. So how do you get all those people currently running Windows buy an Apple OS?

Give them something better, yet different from the Mac line.

A Linux distro from Apple. Or just another Unix based GUI. Call it what you want. Make it cute for marketing. Find a hook to bring people in. Include some of the basic software needed to make it usable from the open-source Linux/Unix applications. A word processor, email client, address book, web browser, ect. Of course more software would be needed, you can your own list of what you think should be included and I wouldn’t argue about it.

Another stupid idea that I didn’t see anywhere else so I take full credit.

If I were doing this, I wouldn’t even bother making hardware. Team up and let someone else do the hard work. Don’t even try to be compatible with every single piece of PC hardware, concentrate on the things that matter. Team up with ATI and Nvidia for graphics cards. Team up with key players for networking, team up with anybody for games. Make it compatible with the big boys, and the smaller market (hardware) will come along. The installation process should include a check of non-compatible hardware and a suggestion for replacements. Heck, make a free version of the checker that people can use before they buy the OS. Have a proprietary chip built-in or on a PCI slot so that not just anyone could load the OS on just any computer. Get a cut of that as well. This not only assures that PC makers can make their money, but will allow Windows zealots to scream to their heart’s content about MORE Apple proprietary crap in PCs! Everybody’s happy!

Most likely (PREDICTION ALERT! PREDICTION ALERT! Prepare hand for slapping!) Apple will put some kind of hardware/software dongle to prevent people from putting OS X on their Dells. They most likely will team up with ATI or Nvidea and others to get machines out the door fast.

Windows (non-OEM) sells for over $200 a copy. Apple sells a 5 user licence for OS X for that much. Sell the new OS for less than $100.

Apple could do this without sacrificing their loyal Macintosh fans. Even better, if it becomes popular enough, maybe they could be the next Microsoft! Except, why does that fill me with dread?

Apple as big as Microsoft. Heh-heh. Thanks, I needed a good laugh. What will the new hardware be priced at? How in the seven shadows of Mordor do I know? My first thought is that they will be cheap at first to bring in all those heavily disillusioned (like me) by this move. On the other hand, Apple hardware sales will have shrunk to the size of certain body parts in extremely cold water by the time an Intel Mac is available, so maybe they will be high to pump up the profit. I promise that from here on end, I won’t make predictions about the Mac market. Anyone want to bet on how long THAT will last?